Daily

Quick note here Neutral Fiscal Policy I mentioned 'augmented fiscal stabilizers' and a neutral fiscal policy in the last message. And subsequently, I thought I should link out to a piece I published on these topics two years ago. Read that…

Treasuries as a political weapon If you don't have the right model of the economy and markets in your head, you can lose lots of money. Case in point is 'The Widowmaker Trade' in Japan where speculators misunderstood the limits of monetary…

Like yesterday, I have a few thoughts on the economic headlines below. This one is behind the paywall though and I am going to focus mostly on two topics. Yield curve inversion At its worst yesterday, the risk-off play saw the 10-year…

Trade and Currency Wars I am starting this article just ahead of the equity market open in New York. And S&P futures have the market opening down 1%. The market continues to be unsettled by the political uncertainty around the US-China…

A quick note here with a few thoughts on technology IPO companies with economic moats I use Slack every day at work. It is an essential internal communications tool for my job. And, as such, I see it as a company with relatively high…

The IPO market is hot As I wrote last night, IPO conditions right now seem nearly ideal for growth companies to come to market. The appetite for loss-making companies shows us that public investors are willing to overlook losses as long as…

Growth matters, profits don't Nearly 7,000 scooters appeared to be active in Los Angeles County in January, having logged a ride in the previous two weeks. By April, more than 5,500 of those same scooters appeared to be removed from active…

Today's jobs report in the US showed some fairly bullish headline numbers. Not only did the unemployment rate did to a 49-year low of 3.6%, but the monster 263,000 job addition was bolstered by net revisions of 16,000, bringing the total to…

Tesla On Thursday, I wrote that "Tesla has been forced to pony up for those converts. They now have $2.2 billion, $1.5 billion less than at the end of the last quarter. I think the need for more capital is a question of when, not if. But if…

Let me pick through the news stories today with a few thoughts of mine on what's happening in the markets and the economy. And I want to start with inflation. Inflation Picks Up, but Still Below Fed’s 2% Target - WSJ The Fed’s preferred…