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The Downside Risk to the Mid-2019 Macroeconomy
None of the metrics I look at are screaming recession right now. In fact, for the US, some of the data is improving. Nevertheless, there is reason to be concerned about the state of the US economy in mid-2019 - so much so that my base case…
The Mid-2019 Macroeconomy
In the US, we are officially in the longest expansion of all time. And, as yet, there are no definitive indicators I can see that it will end in short order. So I remain hopeful, if cautious about the potential for the US economy to avoid…
What the yield curve is signaling about the US economy
Today, we saw a nice pop in equities on the back of a dovish Fed and falling interest rates. Equities moved to new highs as a result. But, clearly, falling yields are a sign of economic distress that one might think would cause equity…
More negative signals, this time from the economy
At the end of May, I started a post on very negative market signals saying "he economic data out of the US and elsewhere still point to continued economic expansion over the near term. But, what we’re seeing in financial markets right now…
The Fed basically has to cut now
The latest jobs report out of the US was relatively poor. While the comprehensive U-6 unemployment rate went down to the lowest since 2000, other data points suggested the labor market is topping. And with bond markets already predicting a…
Geopolitical confrontation and the breakdown of globalization
Everything I am reading this morning in the news flow points to increased geopolitical confrontation and the breakdown of the post-Cold War world order. We are quickly moving to a more hostile balkanized geopolitical environment. And I…
The US economy is now on recession watch
Recession Watch
America's business leaders are growing more worried that the United States will enter a recession by the end of 2020. Their primary fear: protectionist trade policy.
That is the topline finding of a report released Monday…
Very negative market signals
The economic data out of the US and elsewhere still point to continued economic expansion over the near term. But, what we're seeing in financial markets right now suggests markets are discounting serious economic problems down the line.…
More on the Collapse of the Center
Splintering
I am in the process of editing a video at Real Vision where the founder, Raoul Pal, is talking to Dee Smith, the CEO of Strategic Insight Group. It's going to be released in early June. Interestingly, Dee Smith was making a lot…
The Collapse of the Center
It's the politics, stupid?
Credit Writedowns is back. And right now, it's the politics that are on my mind more than the markets or the economics. I have had a long while to sit and think about what's been happening and where we're going.…