2020

I am back from the 4th of July weekend here in the US. I have a few new thoughts to share with you today. But, my overall macro view remains the same - namely that the US has recovered from recession but downside risks to the US economy and…

Very briefly here The jobs numbers coming out the US today are emblematic of the re-opening recovery that has fuelled the rally in US equity markets. Payrolls rose by 4.8 million in June, adding to the upwardly revised 2.7 million on May.…

Happy Wednesday. From what I can discern, the macro outlook is largely unchanged today. So, I thought I'd take a stab at presenting the news flow that most grabs my attention to put it in context for you. The framing here is that we…

With financial markets seemingly untethered from the real economy, it's not clear what impact differential viral outcomes will have on risk assets. Because of central bank intervention and the potential of that intervention to put a floor…

I am reading the US Federal Reserve's bank latest bank stress test analysis because a colleague sent me an alarming note about it. And so I wanted to run my thoughts by you. I like the fact that the Fed is thinking in probabilistic terms…

You guys are my guinea pigs today. I have a 4PM shoot for the Real Vision Daily Briefing and realized that I haven't organized a theme in my head for it. So I am going to use today's newsletter to put pen to paper. And in the interest of…

This is going to be a relatively short post (I hope). My aim is just to bring together all of the thinking from my recent posts into one shorter narrative. And I'm hoping I can do that successfully here. So, here goes Pre-lockdown economy…

As this is a finance site, I have tended to steer clear of writing about what's happening with the novel coronavirus. But, that's hard to do since it is the single most important factor in all of our lives. So, I'm going to give you an…

Earlier this morning I tweeted an old blog post I wrote two years ago because I think it's relevant to what's happening in the economy right now. And so, I want to use this post to explain what that old post was about, and how that old post…

The retail sales data coming out this morning makes clear that the recession that began in February is now over. The forward-looking questions go to what the shape of the recovery looks like, what the policy response will be and how asset…