2016

On Monday, I wrote a piece outlining how the US has pivoted away from China toward Russia. And the conclusion I drew from the circumstances was that this pivot will create a lot of geopolitical and economic uncertainty depending both on the…

This isn't going to be a thematic post on how to profit from Europe's breakup, despite the sinister title. Instead, it’s a potpourri post - a mashup of different ideas I have right now and want to run by you to organize my thinking about…

I have heard some commentators say that the concern over a strong dollar is overblown. I don't think it is. In the context of heightened tensions with China, the strength of the US dollar will be a key issue affecting Asia in particular. I…

As the Trump economic team comes together, their economic vision is also coming together. In the last post, I laid out some overarching themes I am seeing from them on the hopes that reducing taxes and regulation will increase productive…

Donald Trump’s vision of economics is becoming clear as he makes his cabinet picks. In particular, his picks of Steven Mnuchin as Treasury Secretary and Larry Kudlow as probable Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors point to a more…

With the fed having raised interest rates for the second time in ten years, in an environment in which US growth looks pretty good, we should expect more hikes to come. The question is whether the economy can withstand the hikes and what…

This is a quick post about the US economy. To put it simply, I am upbeat about what the near-term holds for the US economy. I have lots of doubts about the longer term. But whereas I might have led with the doubts earlier in the year, as…

This summer – when stock markets across the globe began to rally after their post-Brexit collapse, bond markets put in a top. US 10-year yields bottomed at 1.35% on July 8th. And in the time since, they have zoomed to over 2.5%. In short,…

Ever since Donald Trump unexpectedly won the US presidential election, there has been an unending stream of anti-Trump tirades in the media. The emotions creating this wave of criticism make it difficult to have a reality-based view of the…

Thought I have been on recession watch for nearly all of 2016, I want to write this post as a reminder that there are upside scenarios for the US and global economy. The Federal Reserve looked forward and felt it could tighten into a…