2021

Good morning everyone, I have some exciting — and also - sad news to tell you today. First, I am going to Bloomberg as a Senior Editor. And I am going to use that (much larger) platform to share my views on the macro economy and…

As I write this, the US 10-year Treasury bond is yielding 1.457%, well under the trading range it had established during this quarter. And there are a lot of theories as to why this is happening. I want to spell out how I'm thinking about…

Quick note here to follow up on the macro crystal ball post I wrote a couple of weeks ago (link here for subs).  Michael Msika over at Bloomberg had a piece out on the return of capex powering the next rally. And for me it connected a lot…

We got a big CPI print today, 5.0%. That's above expectations. And, we saw a mild uptick in US Treasury bond yields on the back of the number. But I am wondering whether it really matters. Let me explain. Yesterday, after posting on the…

Earlier today, Bloomberg reported that the yield on a 10-year US Treasury bond fell below 1.50% for the first time in months. And this happened literally the day before a consumer price inflation number expected to come in at 4.7%. That…

The US jobs report came in south of expectations, with non-farm payrolls increasing by 559,000 in May but the unemployment falling to a pandemic low of 5.8% vs 6.1% in April. While the job gains were double, the upwardly revised April total…

We got reads from two US jobs data series this morning. And both showed continued forward progress. To me, this speaks to the potential for tapering of the Fed's large scale asset purchase program in the Fall. We got the ADP private…

Happy June!! Listen, I want to start this month with a thought piece rather than a data piece. And this is going to be a pretty long post. But I think it's important because I plan to build on it. Now, I showed you some data last week on…

To understand the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve's tapering timetable being accelerated, I believe we have to understand how quickly the US employment market improves relative to expectations. That's because the Fed's unstated bias in…

In yesterday's post, the question was this: how bad do inflationary impulses have to get - even if they're just transitory - to matter? The Fed is telling you they have to get pretty bad for it to react. And with US Treasury bond yields sat…