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Yearly Archives
2013
Correcting Some Misconceptions About A New Secular Bull Market
As I was preparing to write my annual "Outlook and Forecast" for 2014, I read many different views from major Wall Street firms to get a general feel of the consensus. However, during the course of my research I read one piece of work in…
When it comes to current account imbalances, one nation stands out
Over the past few decades there has been a great deal of focus on the large trade imbalance between the US and Asia - first with Japan and more recently with China. While that is still an issue, we may be facing a new imbalance that is…
Review: How My Ten Surprises for 2013 Fared
In 2012, I started the subscriber newsletter out with Ten Surprises for 2012. The goal was to give Credit Writedowns Pro subscribers a list of things that investors only assigned one in three odds of occurring that I believed had a fifty…
Some brief thoughts on Bitcoin
2013 has been a breakout year for Bitcoin, the virtual payment system. I haven’t written anything on it to date but I have been following the market. Here are some ideas on Bitcoin based on what I have seen.
US yield curve now steeper than most developed countries
The treasury yield curve remains quite steep by historical standards. Typically such steepness is driven by expectations of higher inflation in the future. But as discussed earlier, that is not the case in the US. Instead it is the…
2014 Outlook: Annus Not-So-Horribilis
This post represents Marc Chandler's thoughts on key topics to watch in markets and the economy for 2014
Japan, Abenomics, the consolidated balance sheet and nationalism
With Shinzo Abe’s radical economic policy shift now one year old, now is an appropriate time to look back and assess its effectiveness. I see results principally in asset prices and to a degree on inflation. However, it is not clear that…