2016

The recent data coming out of the US has been almost unrelentingly negative outside of the recent jobs reports. The Atlanta Fed GDP now report was already down to 0.7% for Q4 when poor output and retail sales data came out. I expect the…

I hate backtracking, but I need to make a correction to the analysis I just sent out. An alert reader, who also tracks the jobs data I am using, wrote me, noting that my data series seemed to chop off the last several months of 2015, making…

Editor's note: The data in the first time series depicted here is cut off in 2015, changing the tenor of the analysis. Please see the correction following this piece, that has a more negative cast regarding the US. The U.S. economy may be…

Last week I was talking about the Goldilocks scenario for the US. I think it is achievable. But this week, RBS tells us that the bears have killed Goldilocks. They say we should "sell everything". Of course, I am more bullish than RBS - or…

The jobs report today was a strong one, underscoring the ability of the US economy to power through. Am I uneasy about where we are in the economic and credit cycle and the accuracy of the Fed’s forward guidance? Yes - and I tend to think…