2020

Quick post here on jobless claims Data collection difficulties Data collection is a real challenge during this pandemic. And the US jobless claims data set is telling on that score. For one, the US Labor Department was forced a few weeks…

I want to try something slightly different today, and go 'off-topic' with some content that more fits the Credit Writedowns blog of yore, when I covered a much wider range of topics. And so, this post is going to be about technology,…

Back in June, I wrote a post about worries that were beginning to surface regarding a speculative mania taking form in the equity markets. I want to update the thinking from that post now that we have had three months' additional data. And…

Today's US jobless claims report makes clear that the boost from re-opening is now fading. And a second wave of job loss is upon us. As a result, while the US unemployment rate declined more than expected in the last jobs report, I expect…

I haven't been teeing up thought pieces on the financial system on Credit Writedowns for a while now. And that's a shame since this site's name owes to the role I believe balance sheets in the financial system play in business cycles. So,…

Around the time that the re-opening rally began to consolidate, I developed a thesis that we would have to wait until September and October before we would know more clearly how the economy would perform over the medium-term. And my view…

I have three threads I want to say a few words on: jobless claims, the jobs report and recent market volatility. I think the macro theme that connects them is about a reversion to the mean' in real economy versus financial economy…

Markets were down today, sending the US market to its worst loss since June. Given that I have been writing about downside market risk, I thought I would make a few comments. First, let me say that one bad day isn't a big deal. In fact,…

The fix I am writing this just before the release of the US jobless claims data series. And for weeks now, I have been telling you that the unemployment claim series was distorted by a multiplicative seasonal factor. See here and here.…

This is an update to yesterday's post about the inability of safe asset holdings to mitigate downside risk during equity drawdowns. As you know, I believe we are about to enter a potentially volatile period in the markets in September and…