2020

I have been trying to find a coherent thread to write about on  what's happening in the economy and in financial markets. But it's been challenging. Yesterday, for example, I did a segment for Real Vision with my colleague Ash Bennington.…

In the last post, I linked to the wrong video at Real Vision. The one I linked to was about Europe's shutdowns and a worsening Covid-19 pandemic. I wanted to link to Monday October 26th discussion. Here is the link. I also found a comment…

Today's ADP jobs report makes plain that the US economy's V-shaped recovery is moving toward the reverse radical section of the upturn. The question is whether politics and the Covid-19 crisis add to downside risk. My view until now has…

Quick weekend post because of the news flow I am moving to double dip as my base case for the global economy because of the lockdowns rippling across Western Europe. I have seen confirmed or likely lockdowns in France, Germany, Spain,…

I want to run something by you I haven't thought through 100%. It's on the coronavirus where I am by no means an expert. But it's troubling me and putting virtual pen to virtual paper will help me tease out some of the variables. I'll try…

Before I get into the markets, let me point out two nice data points released this morning. The data The first is Q3 GDP for the US, which came in at 33.1% on an annualized basis and ahead of expectations for 31.0%. That's 7.4% growth in…

It ain't over until the fat lady sings. That's what they say, isn't it? Well, apparently this is also true about my September/October economic pivot call too. If you recall, I'd been saying that September and October would be a tricky…

I want to take the most macro view possible today. We have a major US election upon us. And we are also experiencing significant increases in Covid-19 infections in Europe and North America. These are events with a wide dispersion of…

I was reading something this morning about Fed Governor Lael Brainard recommending monetary and fiscal support to stop a K-shaped outcome where the less well-off lose and the most well-off win. “This strong support from monetary policy - if…

The thread that ties today's topics at Credit Writedowns together is the novel coronavirus pandemic. That's because how various countries have fared economically is very much dependent on what they are doing to control the virus. Let me…