manufacturing

I want to run something by you here. It's entirely speculative but there are multiple threads hanging off of it that give me reason to speculate. It's about the trajectory of the US (and global economy) and signs that growth is slowing.…

Whenever I give the 'all-clear’ to the US economy - even on a near-term basis, I am always a little uneasy given how little we know about the lasting impact the coronavirus will have. And sure enough, after yesterday’s post on the…

The US economy has been growing for a record 129 months now. And the data that's been coming out of the US recently indicate that's unlikely to change anytime soon. Could the economic effects of the coronavirus outbreak upset this trend?…

Quick post outside the paywall here on some of the data coming out of the US recently FedEx bellwether I wanted to start with FedEx because it is often considered a bellwether of the US economy given its position at the center of shipping…

There's been a lot of economic data coming out of the US in recent days. None of it shows a clear indication that the economy has turned the corner. Some of the early data on housing was good. But, more recently, the numbers have been…

The US jobs report released just earlier this morning showed the US economy adding 136,000 jobs to payrolls in September, with the unemployment rate declining to a 50-year low of 3.5%. This is the latest in a batch of economic data showing…

Real quick here on Europe as I promised yesterday to add some thoughts on Germany after my trip to Cologne US base rates are too high Take a look at this chart from Bianco Research. Jim Bianco describes this as showing the US having the…

I was in Cologne and London last week, two places I know quite well. And as I went out, my trip down memory lane was greeted by the eternal progress of human endeavour. Whether riding the frequently behind schedule Deutsche Bahn by the…

Yesterday, I highlighted Germany in terms of downside global economic risk. We are experiencing a manufacturing- and trade-led deceleration in global growth. Germany is the most prominent large Western economy leveraged to both.

As I write this, Washington is fixated on the congressional testimony of Robert Mueller. My attention is elsewhere though. For me, it's the economy that matters. Over the past two weeks, we have had a "recession watch" on Real Vision,…