Author

Edward Harrison 7783 posts 575 comments

Edward Harrison is a senior Editor at Bloomberg. He is also the founder of Credit Writedowns newsletter, a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

Daily

Two alternative takes on the recession and on coronavirus

Edward Harrison Oct 16, 2020

Real quick here as I want to highlight two other analysts' thinking. This morning, I saw two novel ways of conceptualizing what's happening during this pandemic that I wanted to run by you because I think they add value. It's not…

Political Economy

Lessening credit distress and a jobless claims surge

Edward Harrison Oct 15, 2020

In the US, after the initial V-shaped basing effect of the re-opening, we have moved into a more steady state uptick in output and growth. Having seen the data since June, I believe we exited recession with the re-opening and are now far…

Daily

The business cycle and credit, defaults, and bankruptcies

Edward Harrison Oct 14, 2020

I want to put a little more meat on the bones regarding the section of yesterday's post on credit, defaults and bankruptcies with some numbers. I would contend that credit cycles lead garden-variety business cycle turns. So, absent a Black…

Daily

Sanguine about the near term but concerned about future trends

Edward Harrison Oct 13, 2020

The line that sticks out for me from my last post in re-reading it went something like this: "So, now I am in the uncomfortable position of being relatively sanguine about the near term but concerned about future trends." I want to expand…

Daily

Continued high jobless claims, no stimulus and coronavirus

Edward Harrison Oct 8, 2020

The jobless claims series came out again this morning showing 840,000 initial claims plus a modest revision upward of last week's number to 849,000. These numbers just aren't coming down fast enough. And we know from the last recovery that…

Daily

No stimulus, no problem?

Edward Harrison Oct 7, 2020

The calls for fiscal relief by the Federal Reserve have apparently fallen on deaf ears, as US President Trump pulled out of negotiations for a stimulus package last night. Asset markets were all over the place as investors digested the…

Daily

David Rosenberg and the corona crisis as a depression

Edward Harrison Oct 5, 2020

I know everyone is still talking about President Trump's contracting coronavirus. But I want to talk about the virus from a different, more economic lens. That's because I was talking to the excellent David Rosenberg last week about the…

Daily

Economic downshift sinking in?

Edward Harrison Oct 1, 2020

I want to run something by you here. It's entirely speculative but there are multiple threads hanging off of it that give me reason to speculate. It's about the trajectory of the US (and global economy) and signs that growth is slowing.…

Daily

An update on momentum stocks as a secular stagnation play

Edward Harrison Sep 28, 2020

Back in August I told you I had a thesis I was working on fleshing out about why growth stocks are so loved and why growth has trumped value for years and continues to do. The first post on this is here. But let me provide an update today.…

Daily

Jobless claims remain dangerously elevated

Edward Harrison Sep 24, 2020

The US Department of Labor released the latest jobless claims report this morning and the numbers were poor. From their email, announcing the figures: In the week ending September 19, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial…

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