May 2021

To understand the likelihood of the US Federal Reserve's tapering timetable being accelerated, I believe we have to understand how quickly the US employment market improves relative to expectations. That's because the Fed's unstated bias in…

In yesterday's post, the question was this: how bad do inflationary impulses have to get - even if they're just transitory - to matter? The Fed is telling you they have to get pretty bad for it to react. And with US Treasury bond yields sat…

The interplay between a central bank's forward guidance and market expectations are where the rubber hits the road on long-term interest rates. It's not as easy as divining what a central bank wants to do or what market participants think…

I was talking to my colleague Jack Farley about the financial news flow earlier today. (We're recording a Real Vision Daily Briefing at 4:30PM EDT). He and I agreed that crypto seemed to dominate the headlines. But he and I are also sick of…

I have four things on my mind today: Bullish PMIs in Europe, the electric Ford F-150 launch, non-payment on bond by Unicredit, and the Biden Administration's non-embrace of MMT. Let's take each of these in turn European economic data Look…

I am writing this just before the NY open of US markets. And we have the makings of serious losses on the back of an absolute pounding in the cryptocurrency space. There, the largest asset, Bitcoin, has been cut in half with most of the…

You know, as I started writing today, I tried to think of a headline to suck you in. If you're reading these words, you're either a loyal reader or you got sucked in, which was my purpose. So let me tell you where I'm going with this. At…

This post on the bond vigilantes is inspired in part by my friend Kevin Muir and a post he just did over at The Macro Tourist. It's also inspired by the inflation numbers that came out of the US earlier today. The question to answer: how…

In the wake of the last jobs report in the US, unemployment insurance has become a political football. The issue has some of the trappings of a labor vs capital tete a tete because of how the jobs report is being framed. Some thoughts below…

Yesterday on the Real Vision Daily Briefing, my colleague Jack and I answered a question by viewer Dianna, "are there metrics you are watching closely now as compared to, say, a month ago?" My answer was US jobs numbers and initial…