December 2020

For the second week in a row the raw jobless claims data have fallen, as has the uptick in the rate of increase in Covid-19 infections and death. Meanwhile, some 2.4 million people have been vaccinated worldwide, a Brexit negotiation seems…

In today's piece, I want to focus only on what's been happening rather than making any conjectures about what's likely to happen. Sometimes, it pays just to take stock of where we are because that can help discern where we're headed. So,…

It may seem a bit odd for me to talk about why someone might buy shares on a day when retail sales in the US were down 1.1%. But that's what's been on my mind all morning. I think the genesis of it is a conversation I had with Jay Pelosky…

So it turns out the dip in initial jobless claims last week was just an artifact of the Thanksgiving holiday. This week we played catch up and then some. The question now is where we go from here. Some thoughts on that below Big Head Ed…

The report on the US Employment Situation for November 2020 was released today. And the headline job growth number was poor, a miss of over 200,000 jobs. But as I write this, markets are mostly of a bullish mindset, looking through this…

Very quick here The initial jobless claims number released this morning of 712,000 was well below expectations for 775,000. And it was also well below last week's upwardly revised figure of 787,000. That's very good news. But it is just…

I want to take stock of the economic landscape in the US now that the Thanksgiving holiday is past. There are three decisive variables in my view. The first is the ability of the healthcare system to deal with the coronavirus and keep…