April 2021

I am going to try and fit a few topics together into a cohesive narrative around a pivot to Europe amid an ongoing stimulus campaign on both sides of the Atlantic. The broad outline is one where both fiscal and monetary policy are…

Let's veer into the political economy today, a sort of third rail of market and economic commentary. The reason I want to discuss it is the tax grab contemplated by the Biden Administration in the US. Yesterday, news came out that Biden is…

Winning the footrace If you look at the SARS-CoV-2 case counts in the United States, they're flat to declining over the past two weeks. The fourth wave of the coronavirus in the US has been more muted than previous waves. And while some…

At RealVision, we have a whole group and a whole suite of video interviews dedicated to Crypto. But I am considered a macro guy at RV. And so, I try to stay out of the crypto side of things except to the degree it relates to traditional…

I am sceptical of the long-term durability of this cycle. But, we have to remember that we had a record-long economic cycle after the Great Financial Crisis. And now, policymakers are not willing to accept impotence, either on the monetary…

I have a conversation scheduled for 4PM today with Real Vision CEO and Co-Founder Raoul Pal. And I wanted to use today's newsletter as a 'prep' for that discussion. Raoul has become quite ensconced in the cryptocurrency world and sees that…

Just now, I was looking through the Credit Writedowns archives, searching for the phrase "to the upside" because, today I am thinking about risks being upside risks rather than downside risks. The data released this morning confirm that.…

This post is a bit of a catch all on what's happening right now because there is no dominant theme consuming markets. After the spike higher in rates, we have seen the first real consolidation wave. And so the trends that drove market…

Listen, the big news today is that, yesterday, I got the first shot of a two-shot Pfizer COVID-19 vaccination dose. I feel well less than 100% today to be honest. But my spirits are good. The next appointment is in three weeks. Within a…

Happy Tuesday! For me, it's actually like a Monday because I took a 5-day holiday over Easter and am coming back to work today with relatively fresh eyes. So, let me make this a longer post, telling you what I am thinking and why I am…