Gold

Quick note: With the ECB's policy statement today, it's clear that a lot of major central banks are still running policy that is too tight given the emerging global growth slowdown. I mentioned the Bank of Canada yesterday. But I also…

I mentioned earlier today that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had a joint discussion with former Chair Janet Yellen and former Chairman Ben Bernanke at the American Economic Association and Allied Social Science Association 2019…

I am doing my 2019 outlook pieces now. And I plan on making some market outlook comments in the coming days. But, what's going on in the market right now is equally important. As the stock market takes a battering due to concerns about…

Bullish Treasury curve action Lost in the relief over the rally in US equities today was the price action in US government bonds. And it was good. Even before today, as the middle of the curve inverted, the Treasury curve had been…

If you look at markets today, they are on full strike. The Fed may have reduced guidance. But that was clearly not enough to assuage market sentiment. Across a wide cross-section of markets, conditions have continued to tighten this morning…

Asset market distress is mounting My default position recently has been more about volatility than a directional call on any specific asset class. But, in a world in which asset prices have been rising, increased volatility is almost always…

If you've been reading my most recent posts on US monetary policy, the sense you would have been getting is that the Fed is shifting away from its tightening bias. And the main reason it's unclear what this means in terms of actual policy,…

While everyone was focussing on the relief rally in stocks yesterday, the US treasury yield curve inverted for the first time in over a decade. This is a negative signpost in a world in which the Federal Reserve is almost certain to raise…

I started this post six days ago. But, I couldn't get it sorted because of the holiday and my need to start the blog site up again. That blog site thing and some maintenance issues at home were a real time suck. So let me give you an…

The bear steepening from late August was a head fake. We went from about 18 basis points between the 2- and the 10-year on August 27th to 34 on October 10th. That's when the equities market threw a tizzy as the ten-year reached the 3.25%…