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Gold
Gold member posts
A quick note on the Sears bankruptcy
The iconic department store, Sears, has filed for protection under Chapter 11 of the US bankruptcy code. Retail has changed a lot in recent years. And for Sears specifically, this bankruptcy has been coming for a long time. It was signalled…
$200 oil as a black swan
$200 oil was not on any list of probable outcomes I've seen or considered recently. I think it's fair to say that $200 oil - if it were to happen - would be a black swan event. And it would usher in a massive global economic contraction…
Why the ten-year’s hitting 3.25% has spooked asset markets
This is how Fed tightening regimes work
We're bracing for another big sell off in equities today. I don't know if you saw my piece yesterday on market groups breaking below 50- and 200-day daily moving averages. I said "I don’t have a view…
Some thoughts on the impact of $100 oil on the US, Europe, Japan and EM
Last week, WTI for November delivery passed the $76 a barrel mark. And since September, speculation has been rife that oil could top $100 a barrel in due course. If oil prices do continue to rise, that's going to have very different effects…
An Italian banking crisis and mark-to-market rules
Italy's 10-year sovereign bond yield has risen from 1.78% at end of April and prior to the general election to 3.66%. That's the highest since the beginning of 2014 and the yield is still rising. Domestic banks and Italian life insurers are…
Market shift to bear steepening as important as regime shift under Powell
Back in late February, I told you there was a new hawkish tone coming from the Fed that I believed meant an acceleration of the Fed's rate hike timetable. When Lael Branard got onboard, I knew a regime shift was at hand.
This has proved to…
More evidence that the Fed will accelerate its timetable in 2019 as it did in 2018
Real quick here
Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic has added his voice to the hawkish chorus at the Fed. And what he has said bears noting because of what it means about the Fed's policy path.
In a speech today at the 57th Annual…
More on the impact of bear steepening on risk assets
Shares are down today as the FANG stocks retreat due to investor concern about growth companies in a period of rising rates. This is only a one-day impact though. The question is whether the caution regarding riskier assets will endure.
No…
Jobs report makes December rate hike a lock, raises chance of four hikes in 2019
The latest monthly report on the employment situation in the US saw the unemployment rate dip to its lowest level since 1969. While the addition to non-farm payrolls was below expectations, upward revisions to prior months made this a very…
On the yield curve’s bear steepening in a period of cyclically low credit spreads
I was off last week when the Fed raised rates a quarter percentage point. But I promised to comment on the Fed's action when I returned. I am doing so now.