2019

Today, we saw a nice pop in equities on the back of a dovish Fed and falling interest rates. Equities moved to new highs as a result. But, clearly, falling yields are a sign of economic distress that one might think would cause equity…

At the end of May, I started a post on very negative market signals saying "he economic data out of the US and elsewhere still point to continued economic expansion over the near term. But, what we’re seeing in financial markets right now…

Let me follow up this morning's general post with some longer term thoughts here via the Patreon platform. And while I want to make some geopolitical comments, let me look at this mostly from a markets perspective. I am once again thinking…

I have been troubled by the lack of policy space in Europe for some time now, particularly as it concerns Italy. But this is coming to a head for me this morning, with the German government auctioning 10-year paper at 24 basis points below…

The latest jobs report out of the US was relatively poor. While the comprehensive U-6 unemployment rate went down to the lowest since 2000, other data points suggested the labor market is topping. And with bond markets already predicting a…

Everything I am reading this morning in the news flow points to increased geopolitical confrontation and the breakdown of the post-Cold War world order. We are quickly moving to a more hostile balkanized geopolitical environment. And I…

Recession Watch America's business leaders are growing more worried that the United States will enter a recession by the end of 2020. Their primary fear: protectionist trade policy. That is the topline finding of a report released Monday…

I am sitting here diving into a brand new copy of a book - Progress and Poverty - that was written 140 years ago, in 1879. And it occurred to me I should write you about it because the ideas in this book are as relevant to the 21st century…

The economic data out of the US and elsewhere still point to continued economic expansion over the near term. But, what we're seeing in financial markets right now suggests markets are discounting serious economic problems down the line.…

Splintering I am in the process of editing a video at Real Vision where the founder, Raoul Pal, is talking to Dee Smith, the CEO of Strategic Insight Group. It's going to be released in early June. Interestingly, Dee Smith was making a lot…