2019

The Brexit news is coming hot and heavy now. The latest out of the UK is that House of Commons Speaker John Bercow has allowed an attempt to force Prime Minister Theresa May’s hand on the Brexit deal. The Commons Speaker will allow MPs to…

After I wrote today's post on Brexit, the following news came out - and I think it's significant: Theresa May faces a concerted campaign of parliamentary warfare from a powerful cross-party alliance of MPs determined to use every lever at…

The trading day is over in the US and the numbers look good. Equity markets have recovered smartly from last weeks nosedive, with all major US indices up about 1%. Notable for me is the fact that WTI is trading close to $50 a barrel and the…

I've been thinking about how to write this piece on the outlook for the political economy in the UK for a number of days. I had it teed up to finish yesterday. But I have left it until today. Apologies I still have the bias that economics…

I mentioned earlier today that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had a joint discussion with former Chair Janet Yellen and former Chairman Ben Bernanke at the American Economic Association and Allied Social Science Association 2019…

The numbers Now, about the jobs numbers, here are the headline numbers: An increase of 312,000 in December in non-farm payrolls based on the business survey. That is well in excess of the consensus estimate for 178,000. Revisions of…

At 10:15 this morning, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had a joint discussion with former Chair Janet Yellen and former Chairman Ben Bernanke at the American Economic Association and Allied Social Science Association 2019 Annual…

I will continue my 2019 outlook pieces in the coming days. But we've seen a lot of data out today. I think what we're seeing will have a bearing on rate policy, especially given what's happening in the bond market, something I discussed…

I am doing my 2019 outlook pieces now. And I plan on making some market outlook comments in the coming days. But, what's going on in the market right now is equally important. As the stock market takes a battering due to concerns about…

Happy New Year! I've been thinking about what will be different in 2019 than 2018 and I wanted to run my thoughts by you on a number of different topics. And because I've discussed some of my thinking about the outlook for the markets and…