recession

For the second week in a row the raw jobless claims data have fallen, as has the uptick in the rate of increase in Covid-19 infections and death. Meanwhile, some 2.4 million people have been vaccinated worldwide, a Brexit negotiation seems…

So it turns out the dip in initial jobless claims last week was just an artifact of the Thanksgiving holiday. This week we played catch up and then some. The question now is where we go from here. Some thoughts on that below Big Head Ed…

Quick weekend post because of the news flow I am moving to double dip as my base case for the global economy because of the lockdowns rippling across Western Europe. I have seen confirmed or likely lockdowns in France, Germany, Spain,…

The calls for fiscal relief by the Federal Reserve have apparently fallen on deaf ears, as US President Trump pulled out of negotiations for a stimulus package last night. Asset markets were all over the place as investors digested the…

You guys are my guinea pigs today. I have a 4PM shoot for the Real Vision Daily Briefing and realized that I haven't organized a theme in my head for it. So I am going to use today's newsletter to put pen to paper. And in the interest of…

As this is a finance site, I have tended to steer clear of writing about what's happening with the novel coronavirus. But, that's hard to do since it is the single most important factor in all of our lives. So, I'm going to give you an…

Those of you who know my writing from days gone day, when Credit Writedowns was a blog, know that I gave up advocating for policy responses a long time ago. Not to be a defeatist, but the lesson I learned from the Great Financial Crisis was…

Real quick here because I am a bit under the weather The snapback This morning I retweeted a tweet by former Fed economist Claudia Sahm about the dire economic numbers in the US, saying: Can we call this a depression already? What…

We are now getting the first data points which will inform the increasing disconnect between a rebound in shares and the freefall in the real economy. And, after yesterday's rally in share prices, we are seeing a risk-off tone to the market…

I participate in a weekday markets briefing at Real Vision these days. I love these. They're timely, spontaneous and fun. It's something we started there because markets have been so volatile and fast-moving in the wake of the coronavirus…