recession

It's increasingly clear that the coronavirus pandemic is going to cause a deep recession. And as retail investors understand the gravity of the situation, it will also cause risk assets to plummet, even from today's levels. No, equities are…

We saw a glimpse of it in the data last week for the first time, but the crushing impact of the coronavirus is now here. And the damage it is about to wreak on our economies is significant. This is likely to be a deep recession. Analysis…

I have been looking back at my posts and re-reading my coverage of this global health crisis to get a sense of what I got wrong and why. I know this sounds perverse. But I think it's critical to actively seek non-confirming information and…

We are now to the point where it's clear the coronavirus situation will last for weeks and months to come as more and more countries are forced into the lockdown and quarantine approach to slow the virus down. This is a matter of life and…

Setup We are set for yet another down day in equity markets, with S&P and Nasdaq futures showing 3% losses as I write this. The real moves are in the bond market though because we've seen 20 basis point moves at the long-end of the…

Whenever I give the 'all-clear’ to the US economy - even on a near-term basis, I am always a little uneasy given how little we know about the lasting impact the coronavirus will have. And sure enough, after yesterday’s post on the…

I have been trying to write an all-encompassing post for the new year for two weeks now. But time has never allowed it. So I've decided to forego that and get something out to you on what I am thinking as 2020 begins. First and foremost,…

Understanding curve flattening Long-time readers know that I have talked for a number of years about a longer-term global convergence to zero play that I see shaping up. It first emerged during the mid-cycle slowdown in 2015 and 2016 as…

I am back from my beach vacation. So, let me outline what my thinking is after a period of reflection and how it has changed or stayed the same. I last posted more than a week ago right before I left, regarding my frustration about…

Sorry for the alarmist post title. But the Fed has completely bottled it. I've been warning for some time that it could go this way. And now, we are in in the endgame. First, the Fed overtightened through 2018. Then, forced at gunpoint by…