recession

Back at the end of July, I was talking about my macro thesis. And I led off writing this: The US is the laggard in this slowing but is affected as well. From a markets perspective, that means a convergence to zero, with yield curves…

Yesterday, the overarching message of my post was this bit: "as we think of potential outcomes, policy error has to be a real concern here, especially in 2020 once the cumulative impact of all this takes its full measure." I don't think the…

At the end of May, I started a post on very negative market signals saying "he economic data out of the US and elsewhere still point to continued economic expansion over the near term. But, what we’re seeing in financial markets right now…

Recession Watch America's business leaders are growing more worried that the United States will enter a recession by the end of 2020. Their primary fear: protectionist trade policy. That is the topline finding of a report released Monday…

Back in September 2018, Fed Governor Lael Brainard dismissed yield curve inversion as a signal of recession, something I saw then - and still see now - as a mistake. And what I said then is that this mistake would lead to the Fed's…

Earnings were boosted by corporate tax cuts in the past year. And earnings growth has been buoyed by significant corporate releveraging. But 2019 is looking challenging for companies now and the chart below shows you why. While earnings…

Recalling "Trump Unchained" It started with the sacking of his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in March 2018, almost a year ago. US President Donald Trump has gradually but forcefully unchained himself from moderating influences in his…

My last daily post was about the emerging consensus view that a global recession is just around the corner. And the sense I get is that people believe this recession - unlike the one during the Great Financial Crisis - is being stoked by a…

What are markets saying? The good times are over! The days of extremely low volatility, with the VIX trading at 12 or 13 are now over. We may see an up day or a down day, but the volatility is now higher than it was before - perhaps…

Increasingly, prognosticators are talking about a recession in the United States by 2020. But not everyone is onboard with those predictions. Moreover, arguments vary both in terms of why a recession would take hold and in what the likely…