disaster

Happy Wednesday. From what I can discern, the macro outlook is largely unchanged today. So, I thought I'd take a stab at presenting the news flow that most grabs my attention to put it in context for you. The framing here is that we…

With financial markets seemingly untethered from the real economy, it's not clear what impact differential viral outcomes will have on risk assets. Because of central bank intervention and the potential of that intervention to put a floor…

I am reading the US Federal Reserve's bank latest bank stress test analysis because a colleague sent me an alarming note about it. And so I wanted to run my thoughts by you. I like the fact that the Fed is thinking in probabilistic terms…

You guys are my guinea pigs today. I have a 4PM shoot for the Real Vision Daily Briefing and realized that I haven't organized a theme in my head for it. So I am going to use today's newsletter to put pen to paper. And in the interest of…

This is going to be a relatively short post (I hope). My aim is just to bring together all of the thinking from my recent posts into one shorter narrative. And I'm hoping I can do that successfully here. So, here goes Pre-lockdown economy…

As this is a finance site, I have tended to steer clear of writing about what's happening with the novel coronavirus. But, that's hard to do since it is the single most important factor in all of our lives. So, I'm going to give you an…

The retail sales data coming out this morning makes clear that the recession that began in February is now over. The forward-looking questions go to what the shape of the recovery looks like, what the policy response will be and how asset…

This week I have been making the case for fading this market re-opening rally. I did not expect it to fall apart straight away. But yesterday we saw the first chinks in the armor. So let me tell you what I'm thinking now. This will be…

All eyes today are on the Federal Reserve because the Federal Open Market Committee is due to release its policy statement. There is an unusual amount of interest in what Fed Chairman Jay Powell says at the subsequent press conference…

At the end of April, I wrote a bullish piece centered on an economic snapback after the re-opening, in large part because of pervasive bearish sentiment. I called it "Negative sentiment, the oil price collapse and re-opening business".…