disaster

I have been watching the third wave make its way across Europe and reading the European press to get a sense of how bad it is. And it definitely looks like another lost quarter for Europe. I really like how comprehensive the coverage in the…

For several weeks now, as the new virulent coronavirus strains have begun to circulate, I have called 2021 a foot race between those strains and the vaccination process. And I am thinking of the new strains circulating around the globe as…

Two separate issues here today. The first is on the yield curve in the US. And the second is on the slow vaccine rollout in the EU and its impact on the economy. The three yield curve outcomes Let' start with the yield curve. We began the…

The title of the post is supposed to marry what's happening on the pandemic front with what's happening in financial markets. The gist is that, in a world where unexpected levels of economic resiliency has been the norm, we should wonder…

So it turns out the dip in initial jobless claims last week was just an artifact of the Thanksgiving holiday. This week we played catch up and then some. The question now is where we go from here. Some thoughts on that below Big Head Ed…

Very quick here The initial jobless claims number released this morning of 712,000 was well below expectations for 775,000. And it was also well below last week's upwardly revised figure of 787,000. That's very good news. But it is just…

I want to take stock of the economic landscape in the US now that the Thanksgiving holiday is past. There are three decisive variables in my view. The first is the ability of the healthcare system to deal with the coronavirus and keep…

The US is moving quickly toward a double dip recession despite the prospect of vaccines being administered as soon as next month. The question is not whether growth forecasts ratchet down. It's about how much they come down and what the…

Lockdowns are very destructive for growth. We know that from the record-setting declines in GDP from the first global lockdowns back in the Spring. And we are getting a renewed sense of that fact now as Europe's economy has contracted under…

The incoming data in the US make clear that the US is now also in jeopardy of recording a double dip recession because of the latest Covid-19 wave, just as Europe before it. Moreover, the data also make clear that there is no healthcare -…