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No catalysts for global recession as Brexit gets long extension
The overall macro message I have been making the past several months is that the global economy has cooled to perhaps its slowest growth since the financial crisis. Yet, when we look for signs of imminent recession in the US or for…
Brexit: Theresa May hints at Article 50 revocation
Very quickly here:
Yesterday, British Prime Minister Theresa May gave an informal address to the nation from her couch at a the Prime Minister's country retreat, Chequers.The informality of the address is what first caught people’s eye.…
Jobs report is a Goldilocks report this month. Here’s why
The jobs report released at 8:30 this morning was as a good a report as we could expect, more than ten years into the US economic expansion. The headline March numbers were an increase of 196,000 conform payrolls and an unemployment rate…
Are interest rates the most effective economic policy tool?
By Marshall Auerback
This post first appeared on AlterNet
Cutting rates at this juncture simply perpetuates current bubble-like conditions and therefore will make the ultimate outcome worse when the bubble inevitably bursts.
The one…
The global economic supertanker is not unsinkable but…
Sorry for the lack of posts. I haven't been feeling well. But let me make a short appearance with some brief thoughts on the global economy.
1 - Brexit
I have been distracted a lot by the Brexit drama unfolding in the UK. In general, I…
On global bond markets predicting recession, collapsing net interest margins and Sweden as the model
This post is going to be relatively long because I am going to try to combine a number of threads together. I thought about putting this post in the investor newsletter pool. But I am going to give it a wider distribution because of the…
The Fed will end up playing chicken with bond markets
Hearing what Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren makes of the US economy, you get the feeling that the Fed may not be ready to roll over completely. And with the yield curve inverted between the 3-month and 10-year yields, we are at a…
The Fed has inverted the yield curve
Back in September 2018, Fed Governor Lael Brainard dismissed yield curve inversion as a signal of recession, something I saw then - and still see now - as a mistake. And what I said then is that this mistake would lead to the Fed's…
Airbus and Boeing are signing economic suicide pacts with Beijing
By Marshall Auerback
This article originally appeared on AlterNet.
Airbus is considering whether or not to shift the assembly process of its latest generation of A330 planes to China as part of a bid to increase its market share in the…
US curve inversion worsens as the Fed acquiesces to market sentiment
Yesterday's climbdown by the Federal Reserve on both interest rate policy and balance sheet reduction was not enough to satisfy the market's disquiet about the US economy. Equity markets sold off and US Treasury yields rallied as the…