Credit Writedowns

I have been trying to organize a decent exchange on MMT on the new financial media platform Real Vision. My first attempt got dropped because the conversation wasn't forward looking, diving into the issues people care about, namely the…

Let me pick through the news stories today with a few thoughts of mine on what's happening in the markets and the economy. And I want to start with inflation. Inflation Picks Up, but Still Below Fed’s 2% Target - WSJ The Fed’s preferred…

This is going to be real quick. The Q1 GDP numbers came out. And they were a huge beat, showing 3.2% annualized growth versus an expected 2.0%. Even the bullish Atlanta Fed nowcast undershot this at 2.7%. If you look at how the quarter…

After the Fed overtightened in 2018, it reversed course abruptly. And risk assets have cheered the Fed's volte face with a V-shaped surge to new highs. And, coincidentally (since Fed policy acts with a lag), the economic data have turned up…

Yesterday, in the US, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq indices hit record highs. And the Dow Jones Industrial Average is not far behind. Financial markets are doing well. In the real economy, for weeks now I have suggested that the signs of…

I have an interview on Real Vision with currency specialist Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Global Forex coming up later today. And I wanted to sort out some of my macro thinking ahead of it. Let me run by you what I'm seeing in the markets…

I apologize in advance for posting this downbeat narrative. But it's what came to mind after reading the news after the Mueller Report was released in the US yesterday. Let me tell you where I'm going with this and what I think it means.…

Real quick here today, since I'm supposed to be on Holiday. The data out this morning in the US were extremely bullish in my view. And, as I've been saying April data would make or break the economic re-acceleration thesis, I am finally…

I apologize for missing Monday and yesterday. I am actually on Holiday right now. And though it seems strange to work on Holiday, I have always written through my vacations. I reckon I will be off tomorrow. But, who knows. I have my laptop…

As I note today how the upcoming Uber IPO tells us that equity investors are still quite bullish, I also realize that this particular bull market is unique in its absence of volatility. There have been a few hiccups a long the way,…