Credit Writedowns

Stalled outYou probably saw this but the Atlanta Fed came out with its first Q1 GDPNow estimate. And it's starting at a 0.3% level. Here's the chart. GDPNow is a nowcast. So it can change dramatically. And it isn't always very close to…

In the last few weeks, I've been seeing a lot of buzz about Modern Monetary Theory aka MMT. And most of what I'm seeing is reductionist to the point of absurdity. When I see critics of MMT talking about it, they're mostly using MMT as a…

I have a number of threads to address here. The first is that we got two big pieces of economic data out of the US this morning, one backward looking and the other coincident or forward looking. And I want to break down. My overall take is…

May's stalling tactic hasn't worked In the two months since British Prime Minister Theresa May decided to postpone a Parliamentary vote on her deal with the EU, I have been predicting she would be forced to delay implementation of Article…

For the past several years, I have been trying to write more about outcomes and less about theories and policy prescriptions. But, like anyone, I have a core set of beliefs on economics and a lot more. Economics is not a science; it is a…

A detour to the other side of the pond I have two big picture issues on my mind this morning. The first is the US economy and the US policy response. I think the Neil Irwin piece in the New York Times encapsulates a lot of the thinking on…

It's news Friday time. Like last week, I want to switch things up a bit and focus on the news. I am going to present a news story. And then I am going to expand on it, riffing off it and giving you 'my take' on the story. Hopefully, this…

My recent experience with taxis On my way into Manhattan from LaGuardia Airport on Monday night, I noticed an app symbol for Curb on the payment box in my taxi. The box said I could pay for the ride with this app. So while I was in transit,…

Earnings were boosted by corporate tax cuts in the past year. And earnings growth has been buoyed by significant corporate releveraging. But 2019 is looking challenging for companies now and the chart below shows you why. While earnings…

Recalling "Trump Unchained" It started with the sacking of his Secretary of State Rex Tillerson in March 2018, almost a year ago. US President Donald Trump has gradually but forcefully unchained himself from moderating influences in his…