Credit Writedowns

I know it's pure folly to predict what the Fed is likely to do on a FOMC meeting by meeting basis. But hear me out. Despite the fact that I see the Fed looking to remain as tight as they can reasonably be in order to save up firepower for…

The Washington Post has a post up today on how two housekeepers took on the president — and revealed that his company employed undocumented immigrants. I sent it to a friend. And the exchange we had about the article made me think a bit…

Everybody's talking about this video of G-7 leaders laughing at US President Donald Trump during the recent NATO summit. While most people are just giggling about it, I think it reflects a much deeper issue. Take a look. .@JustinTrudeau,…

There's been a lot of economic data coming out of the US in recent days. None of it shows a clear indication that the economy has turned the corner. Some of the early data on housing was good. But, more recently, the numbers have been…

There are conditions under which governments can create money—or debt—without fear of inflation or excessive debt burdens. There are other conditions under which debt or money creation can lead to inflation and balance sheet problems.

Impeachment In the last couple of weeks, at the expense of other thoughts, I have been consumed by the impeachment proceedings going on in the United States. I guess this is a byproduct of my having been born in, growing up in and now…

I think it's a good time to outline where we are in this business cycle right now because a number of factors are coming together to present a larger picture in the US both in terms of growth and the policy response to that growth. The Fed…

It's been a while since I had a public post on Credit Writedowns. So I thought now would be a good time to post given Wednesday's Fed rate decision and presser and today's jobs report. I think this one-two punch is a big deal. And that's…

I want to tie a number of economic and political topics together today as a way of thinking about what the next 18 months in the US will mean. And a lot of it starts with the US domestic economy. Recession watch Over the past several years,…

The Fed's discomfortFor the better part of 4 years, I have been telling you that the Federal Reserve has been uncomfortable with a mid-cycle role which required it to keep rates at zero percent. The Fed sees its role as principally reserved…