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Millennials’ openness to socialism and more on a brokered convention
Happy Valentine's Day!
Let me make this a quick post, spurred on by three things - one thing I heard in conversation I had, one thing I heard on the radio, and one thing I read on Twitter.
Defining socialism
When I write ‘socialism’, really…
A brokered Democratic convention and the faltering European economy
Two topics today: the US and the EU. Unlike Monday, when it was the politics in the EU and the economy in the US, this time, I want to talk about the politics in the US and the economy in the EU.
How the Fed aims to prevent the next financial crisis using the Standing Repo Facility
At first, I called this post "More on Quarles and the introduction of a standing repo facility". But that's not a sexy title is it? That's because repo isn't a sexy topic. I think it's important though. If we have a liquidity crisis though,…
German chancellor in waiting quits, Fedspeak comments, Repo thoughts, and economic bullishness
Today is a bit of a potpourri because I have three different unrelated topics to discuss and one review item. But I'll make it (relatively) short. I have the most to say about Germany.
Jobs report confirms health of US economy and gives a boost to Trump
The latest jobs report confirms that, on the eve of the coronavirus outbreak, the US economy was healthy, and that there was little chance of a near-term recession. I would go so far as to say that, even with the coronavirus outbreak, the…
Some thoughts on the radicalization of politics in Germany (and around the globe)
One major headline today that you might have seen concerns politics in the German State of Thuringia. And that’s because German Chancellor Angela has publicly rebuked the leaders of her own party in that state for accepting support from the…
Bullish US and EU data as we wait for the US jobs numbers
There are a lot of bearish views out there, suggesting recession is just around the corner. Frankly, I don’t see it.
Data setback for the economic bears
The US economy has been growing for a record 129 months now. And the data that's been coming out of the US recently indicate that's unlikely to change anytime soon. Could the economic effects of the coronavirus outbreak upset this trend?…
More on the coronavirus, tail risk and policy error
it’s now much more clear that the coronavirus is a serious event risk and that financial conditions are tightening very quicky. The Federal Reserve needs to take these signals seriously to prevent worst-case outcomes, that include recession…
Overkill on recession worries
I am looking at the US yield curve as I write this note and I see the 10-year yield is just one-tenth of a basis point above the 3-month yield. And the curve is completely inverted from 6 months to 3 years. Should we be worried? The short…