Sign in
Sign in
Recover your password.
A password will be e-mailed to you.
A framework for thinking about tail risk
I woke up this morning to tweets from the amazing Lisa Abramowicz indicating a sizable move into risk-off territory for global markets on the back of coronavirus concerns. And because I talked about faulty market structure related to one of…
When is individual wealth too large?
In an interview with Ta-Neishi Coates, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez tries to answer the recurrent question of 'when is it just too much money?"
Here's the clip. Watch the whole thing because I am going to comment on it.
The AOC position…
BBB fallen angels and fake ETF liquidity
Yesterday and today, there's been a bit of back and forth on Twitter about vulnerabilities in the high yield space. I thought I would weigh in via this newsletter because I think it's an important issue regarding faulty market structure.…
My constant end of cycle worries
Despite my seemingly panglossian 'cautiously optimistic' post last week, I am still very much worried that we are hitting the end of this cycle. I'll tell you why below. But, let me add just a few notes on style first! In keeping with 'the…
UK and US looking inward, withdrawing from global role
Quick note here
Did you know there was a peace negotiation surrounding Libya this past weekend? I certainly didn't until I watched the German evening news. This negotiation is getting absolutely zero play in the media in both the UK and…
The Iran conflict and why political events aren’t bigger economic drivers
Somewhere in the Credit Writedowns archive are comments regarding US President Trump to the effect that political economy shocks won't matter. So I want to share a quick anecdote with you on why I have never put too much stock in the…
The new cautiously optimistic Credit Writedowns in 2020
I have been trying to write an all-encompassing post for the new year for two weeks now. But time has never allowed it. So I've decided to forego that and get something out to you on what I am thinking as 2020 begins.
First and foremost,…
Some soft US data doesn’t yet mean recession
Quick post outside the paywall here on some of the data coming out of the US recently
FedEx bellwether
I wanted to start with FedEx because it is often considered a bellwether of the US economy given its position at the center of shipping…
Take back control: the revolt of the working class
Framing the populist revolt
In the industrialized Western world, we are living through a great age of populism. There's no doubt about that now. The trigger for it was the Great Financial Crisis of 2007-2009 and the knock-on European…
Anti-globalization, Brexit and the Labour Party Meltdown
Labour shellacking and SNP domination
The UK general election results are in. And, for me, the most striking feature of the outcome is the absolute thrashing the Labour Party received. With only 201 seats of 650 constituencies in…