Daily

As this is a finance site, I have tended to steer clear of writing about what's happening with the novel coronavirus. But, that's hard to do since it is the single most important factor in all of our lives. So, I'm going to give you an…

Earlier this morning I tweeted an old blog post I wrote two years ago because I think it's relevant to what's happening in the economy right now. And so, I want to use this post to explain what that old post was about, and how that old post…

The retail sales data coming out this morning makes clear that the recession that began in February is now over. The forward-looking questions go to what the shape of the recovery looks like, what the policy response will be and how asset…

Later today, I am talking to Ash Bennington, my friend and colleague at Real Vision, on our Daily Briefing about what's going on in the market and the economy right now. And I'd like to use this note at Credit Writedowns to help me collect…

This week I have been making the case for fading this market re-opening rally. I did not expect it to fall apart straight away. But yesterday we saw the first chinks in the armor. So let me tell you what I'm thinking now. This will be…

We have started an experiment at Real Vision on our Daily Briefing where we have guest commentators more often. Our usual European commentator, Roger Hirst, is out for two weeks. And so we thought it would be a good opportunity to mix…

All eyes today are on the Federal Reserve because the Federal Open Market Committee is due to release its policy statement. There is an unusual amount of interest in what Fed Chairman Jay Powell says at the subsequent press conference…

At the end of April, I wrote a bullish piece centered on an economic snapback after the re-opening, in large part because of pervasive bearish sentiment. I called it "Negative sentiment, the oil price collapse and re-opening business".…

Shares are mixed in early trading today in the US after several days of positive performance. And while this might seem incongruous with the social unrest happening in the United States, there is no historical data supporting the notion…

Falling apart I haven't posted in a week because I am trying to process what's happening in the United States right now. With the pandemic and 20-25% unemployment and cities torn by protest and violence, it really seems like the country is…