2020

We saw a glimpse of it in the data last week for the first time, but the crushing impact of the coronavirus is now here. And the damage it is about to wreak on our economies is significant. This is likely to be a deep recession. Analysis…

In yesterday's newsletter I claimed that we are now in a financial crisis. That's because, for me, yesterday was the first day during the present market turmoil that felt like the Great Financial Crisis. And sure enough, the Dow Jones…

The awesome scale and scope of the coronavirus pandemic is now becoming clear as countries around the world enter lockdown and quarantine. And financial markets are in turmoil as a result. I am writing this before the open in NY. But…

I have been looking back at my posts and re-reading my coverage of this global health crisis to get a sense of what I got wrong and why. I know this sounds perverse. But I think it's critical to actively seek non-confirming information and…

My anecdote on where we are This morning, before I left the house to take my son to school he said, "they should just close schools today. Why wait?" And so, as I took my son to school for the last time before it shuts due to the…

Last night's coronavirus speech by US President Trump was poorly received by markets. US equity markets were jittery after closing in bear market territory. So, people were looking for concrete stimulus measures to have reason to buy shares…

We are now to the point where it's clear the coronavirus situation will last for weeks and months to come as more and more countries are forced into the lockdown and quarantine approach to slow the virus down. This is a matter of life and…

The S&P500 futures index are limit up as I write this. What a turnaround this is from yesterday. It shows you that volatility will rule the day until we get certainty on the economic and market issues behind the coronavirus epidemic.…

We are now facing the potential for a severe financial crisis, with all asset markets showing major moves toward safe haven assets. What has precipitated panic is the Saudi oil price cut at the weekend because it has caused oil prices to…

When I was thinking about writing this post earlier in the weekend I was only going to stress the GDPNow number. And the point was to reiterate how well the US economy was doing pre-coronavirus. And then I was going to make the abrupt…