2020

Twelve years I have been at this for 12 years now. It seems remarkable that I have been writing this site, Credit Writedowns, for that long because I can remember the early days like they were yesterday. I was thinking about this fact -…

The eye of this economic and healthcare storm has passed over us and we are just now getting hit with the backside of the storm. And so, as I await the initial jobless claims report at 8:30 Am EDT, the question is: how bad will it be? But…

The phase of Knightian Uncertainty ends soon I am going to keep it brief today because the sense I have had for the last few days is that we have finally reached a news plateau on this pandemic. The news flow is horrific, with alarming…

As I await the US jobless claims numbers this morning, I am thinking about the international news broadcasts I listened to overnight. I think it's time to turn to a more global focus and get a sense of how countries around the world are…

My British colleague Roger, now in lockdown in the UK, is the one who came up with the title phrase. He said, from an economic, policy and market standpoint, this is the key question to ask. In terms of the policy apparatus now in place, as…

How many people will die because lockdowns are lifted prematurely? That's the first question going through my head as I think about the logic of yesterday's post on the coronavirus lockdown. No sooner had I written that post predicting that…

Just after I hit go on the last post, we got a bombshell announcement from the Federal Reserve. And I've responded in real-time on Twitter. So, let me respond more quickly here very briefly too. The Fed is essentially putting a floor on…

It's increasingly clear that the coronavirus pandemic is going to cause a deep recession. And as retail investors understand the gravity of the situation, it will also cause risk assets to plummet, even from today's levels. No, equities are…

I want to present two sides of the argument that equities are putting in a bottom. I think there's no doubt that equities are trying to put in a bottom, simply because equity markets are deeply oversold after the massive downdraft in…

Years ago, during the Great Financial Crisis and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis. I used to do a daily news round-up with links to some of the day's must-read articles. So I thought I would start up that practice again today. Let me say…