2020

The model I have a bit of a problem. I am not sure how to put today's post together. What I plan to dissect is the economic outlook as we escape coronavirus lockdowns. But, economies are so complex and the outlook is so uncertain that it's…

Today's newsletter is going to be more of a potpourri from the international economic and market news flow than a theme-specific post. Before I proceed, let me say a few words about the dire sentiment associated with this pandemic. Negative…

It's easy to get pessimistic, looking at the economic outlook from the US, which has been a laggard during the coronavirus pandemic. The United States has a ways to go before a semblance of economic normalcy returns. But I have been…

Providing a more global context A couple of weeks ago, I promised you an 'internationalization' of my content filter. I haven't really delivered on that promise as yet. But, I am going to try and ramp that effort up now. The goal is to give…

There's no dominant theme I want to discuss today. But, there is a lot of news flow. So I thought it would be a good time to take stock of what's happening in the economy and financial markets, without presenting an overarching theme. Some…

I woke up in the middle of last night. And I checked my phone really quickly. I know I shouldn't do it. Studies say it's bad sleep hygiene. But I couldn't help myself. I was on edge about all of the market volatility and I needed to know…

I'm a macro guy. So you're not coming to Credit Writedowns for trades. But this macro idea - that the US is not going to stay a net exporter of energy for long - came from a trade idea over a month ago. So, let me take you my thinking on…

At the weekend, I noticed that the Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte was still touting so-called coronabonds to deal with the devastating impact of this pandemic on Spain and Italy. For some northern European policy makers, this is a…

This is a follow-on post to the one I wrote on 23 March predicting there would be a rush to exit lockdowns because of the economic consequences of the full stop to our economy. I've re-read that post. And I stand by my view that the base…

We are now getting the first data points which will inform the increasing disconnect between a rebound in shares and the freefall in the real economy. And, after yesterday's rally in share prices, we are seeing a risk-off tone to the market…