high yield

My anecdote on where we are This morning, before I left the house to take my son to school he said, "they should just close schools today. Why wait?" And so, as I took my son to school for the last time before it shuts due to the…

We are now facing the potential for a severe financial crisis, with all asset markets showing major moves toward safe haven assets. What has precipitated panic is the Saudi oil price cut at the weekend because it has caused oil prices to…

This post is going to be about the tightening of financial conditions as evidenced by a rush to safe haven assets and bond market spread-widening. But I want to start with how I am thinking about the economic impact of the Covid-19 virus…

Yesterday and today, there's been a bit of back and forth on Twitter about vulnerabilities in the high yield space. I thought I would weigh in via this newsletter because I think it's an important issue regarding faulty market structure.…

Quick post outside the paywall here on some of the data coming out of the US recently FedEx bellwether I wanted to start with FedEx because it is often considered a bellwether of the US economy given its position at the center of shipping…

I know it's pure folly to predict what the Fed is likely to do on a FOMC meeting by meeting basis. But hear me out. Despite the fact that I see the Fed looking to remain as tight as they can reasonably be in order to save up firepower for…

There's been a lot of economic data coming out of the US in recent days. None of it shows a clear indication that the economy has turned the corner. Some of the early data on housing was good. But, more recently, the numbers have been…

I was in Cologne and London last week, two places I know quite well. And as I went out, my trip down memory lane was greeted by the eternal progress of human endeavour. Whether riding the frequently behind schedule Deutsche Bahn by the…

As I note today how the upcoming Uber IPO tells us that equity investors are still quite bullish, I also realize that this particular bull market is unique in its absence of volatility. There have been a few hiccups a long the way,…

ECB stimulus The biggest development today was the ECB's announcement that it is reversing its stance on stimulus and offering new bank loans: The European Central Bank signaled a major policy reversal Thursday, flagging plans for fresh…