Federal Reserve

Recession Watch America's business leaders are growing more worried that the United States will enter a recession by the end of 2020. Their primary fear: protectionist trade policy. That is the topline finding of a report released Monday…

After the Fed overtightened in 2018, it reversed course abruptly. And risk assets have cheered the Fed's volte face with a V-shaped surge to new highs. And, coincidentally (since Fed policy acts with a lag), the economic data have turned up…

As I note today how the upcoming Uber IPO tells us that equity investors are still quite bullish, I also realize that this particular bull market is unique in its absence of volatility. There have been a few hiccups a long the way,…

By Marshall Auerback This post first appeared on AlterNet Cutting rates at this juncture simply perpetuates current bubble-like conditions and therefore will make the ultimate outcome worse when the bubble inevitably bursts. The one…

Hearing what Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren makes of the US economy, you get the feeling that the Fed may not be ready to roll over completely. And with the yield curve inverted between the 3-month and 10-year yields, we are at a…

Back in September 2018, Fed Governor Lael Brainard dismissed yield curve inversion as a signal of recession, something I saw then - and still see now - as a mistake. And what I said then is that this mistake would lead to the Fed's…

Yesterday's climbdown by the Federal Reserve on both interest rate policy and balance sheet reduction was not enough to satisfy the market's disquiet about the US economy. Equity markets sold off and US Treasury yields rallied as the…

This is a follow-on to yesterday's post, where I argued that we are in a holding pattern regarding the thesis that global growth deceleration has ended. The equity markets are positioned as if that thesis is true. But the bond markets show…

No major catalysts in either direction Right now, there are no major stories that I think will have any meaningful near-term impact on asset markets. We're definitely still in  a risk-on market phase. And ostensibly, this is largely because…

Note: this post is going out via Patreon and Credit Writedowns. So, you may get duplicate emails. I am just doing this to alert anyone that is only getting emails on one platform to ping me at [email protected], so I can fix that.…