Federal Reserve

As I wrote yesterday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates a quarter point but changed guidance in the face of tightening financial conditions. In his press conference afterwards, the Fed Chairman - also as predicted - talked bullishly…

There is a lot of economic and political uncertainty swirling around the global economy right now. And, judging by many of the headlines, you would think we're on the verge of recession. I don't believe that's the case. Instead, I believe…

If you've been reading my most recent posts on US monetary policy, the sense you would have been getting is that the Fed is shifting away from its tightening bias. And the main reason it's unclear what this means in terms of actual policy,…

Yesterday, the US Treasury yield curve inverted between 2- and 5-year rates. Right now, the 2-year is trading at 2.82%. While the 5-year is trading at 2.81%. So, the curve remains inverted.

This is my inaugural post on the new platform after I wrote you about changes I wanted to make. So, I hope this new platform is better than the old because it's being hosted at my old blog url www.creditwritedowns.com. Let me know your…

Oil is one of several reasons the Fed might pause next year, rather than sticking to its three hike timetable. Housing is another. No wonder there was considerable speculation about a pause on the back of comments by Fed Chairman Jerome…

The Powell speech is over and the stock market is up on the back of it because people interpreted his comments as dovish. Was it though? It depends on where you're coming from.

Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida gave a speech just yesterday on future monetary policy called "Data Dependence and U.S. Monetary Policy". Let's look at what he had to say as we await Chairman Powell's own speech today.

Trump's bellyaching about the Fed is only harming him. It serves no useful purpose. If he thinks it's a veiled threat, he's wrong.

I am now stuffed with Turkey after days sitting around eating for the Thanksgiving holiday here in the US. Today is Black Friday, the biggest day of the year for retail sales. And so it makes sense to write this newsletter post today.  I…