Federal Reserve

Lingering concerns about long-term unemployment notwithstanding, inflation has taken center stage. The most recent jobs report, while weak, does little to diminish the Fed's view that rates need to move higher.

Former Fed insider Daielle DiMartino Booth knows the Fed will be out of bullets at the next recession. Even so, its Chairman Jay Powell is now desperately trying to create as much runway as possible.

Federal Reserve governor Lael Brainard gave a speech on financial stability yesterday afternoon. The big takeaway is that the "Powell Put" is not very strong. The Fed will stress economic tailwinds and inflation concerns. And it will not…

Quick post here. I caught a tweet by Bloomberg's Lisa Abramowicz this morning noting that the yield curve was at its flattest since the Great Financial Crisis. Looking at the data, I noted that the 10-year bond is trading at only 49 basis…

Cleveland Federal Reserve President Loretta Mester has joined the chorus of Fed officials trumpeting hawkish views. Note her comments about financial stability and reloading the Fed's interest rate gun. At the margin, these variables…

Inflation is the controlling variable from here on out. Two rate hikes are effectively off the table for 2018 as a likely outcome. Fed projections will rise to four rate increases if inflation rises. And beyond 2018, expect Fed projections…

Even the most dovish Fed officials are onboard with a regime shift toward an accelerated rate hike timetable. Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren has become hawkish. His remarks show that the Fed is now actively preparing markets for a…