Federal Reserve

Increasing the pace of quantitative tightening in lieu of raising rates would give the Fed the opportunity to test what impact this has on the slope of the yield curve.

Editor's note: A version of this post was originally published at my Patreon account on 13 Jun I have another more macro post on the Fed I am developing for later today. But I wanted to run this one by you because I am seeing a lot of…

My expectation is for the Fed to raise rates, keep guidance the same but be slightly more hawkish.

The macro data are good enough for the Fed to dismiss economic concerns for adding a hike in December. The market is only pricing in this hike at 33.2%.

I have talked a decent bit about the jobs report in my last two posts here. So I want to say more about what the information in that report says to Fed members, given recent Fed guidance and speeches. I am going to lean heavily on comments…

The US jobs number just came out and the figures were quite good. Two-year yields spiked on the news.

I continue to believe that the bond bear market thesis is flawed. Money managers following it will lose a lot of money.

The lower the headline unemployment rate number goes, the more likely the Fed is to guide to two rate hikes in 2018.

By Marc Chandler This post first appeared on Marc to Market Investors are seeing turmoil in the capital markets and a decline in US interest rates, including at the short-end.  Some are suggesting that market has become less confident of…

As the Fed raises rates, it will likely be surprised both by how fragile EMEs are and by the spillover impact Fed policy still has abroad