Credit Writedowns

Framing the problem The question on my mind today is about best case economic outcomes. How does a country get through the Covid-19 pandemic with the least bad economic outcome? And in thinking about that question, I want to do three…

Morning thoughts Let's hit on several themes today that I've covered in the past which are advancing. The overall context here is that we have escaped a first wave of dreadful information flow, with policy makers doing their utmost to take…

Markets As I write this, futures for the US market show another 3% rally in the offing at today's open. This follows a 7% move yesterday and belies the pain in the real economy. And so, increasingly, I am seeing comments from market…

This weekend was a good one, with nothing too exciting roiling markets. So, rather than focussing on the near term, let me get out my crystal ball today and tell you what I see coming down the line. I'll break it up into discrete bits…

The tenor of my recent posts to subscribers has been mostly about the real world economic outcomes being worse than anticipated. Today's data flow is no different. Earlier today, I talked about the abysmal PMI numbers in Europe and the…

Twelve years I have been at this for 12 years now. It seems remarkable that I have been writing this site, Credit Writedowns, for that long because I can remember the early days like they were yesterday. I was thinking about this fact -…

The eye of this economic and healthcare storm has passed over us and we are just now getting hit with the backside of the storm. And so, as I await the initial jobless claims report at 8:30 Am EDT, the question is: how bad will it be? But…

The phase of Knightian Uncertainty ends soon I am going to keep it brief today because the sense I have had for the last few days is that we have finally reached a news plateau on this pandemic. The news flow is horrific, with alarming…

As I await the US jobless claims numbers this morning, I am thinking about the international news broadcasts I listened to overnight. I think it's time to turn to a more global focus and get a sense of how countries around the world are…

My British colleague Roger, now in lockdown in the UK, is the one who came up with the title phrase. He said, from an economic, policy and market standpoint, this is the key question to ask. In terms of the policy apparatus now in place, as…