Credit Writedowns

I woke up in the middle of last night. And I checked my phone really quickly. I know I shouldn't do it. Studies say it's bad sleep hygiene. But I couldn't help myself. I was on edge about all of the market volatility and I needed to know…

I'm a macro guy. So you're not coming to Credit Writedowns for trades. But this macro idea - that the US is not going to stay a net exporter of energy for long - came from a trade idea over a month ago. So, let me take you my thinking on…

At the weekend, I noticed that the Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte was still touting so-called coronabonds to deal with the devastating impact of this pandemic on Spain and Italy. For some northern European policy makers, this is a…

This is a follow-on post to the one I wrote on 23 March predicting there would be a rush to exit lockdowns because of the economic consequences of the full stop to our economy. I've re-read that post. And I stand by my view that the base…

We are now getting the first data points which will inform the increasing disconnect between a rebound in shares and the freefall in the real economy. And, after yesterday's rally in share prices, we are seeing a risk-off tone to the market…

I participate in a weekday markets briefing at Real Vision these days. I love these. They're timely, spontaneous and fun. It's something we started there because markets have been so volatile and fast-moving in the wake of the coronavirus…

This post title may not seem relevant right now. But, let me explain it first. I was looking through my post drafts folder this morning, deleting ones that never made it to publication. And this post title popped up as having been…

You've heard me throw the 'D' word around on a couple of occasions - sometimes to signal policy makers are trying to avoid that outcome, but other times to signal this is looking like one. So, which is it? We don't know yet. But let me use…

Hopefully you saw my comments from this morning about the Fed. That was for subscribers only. So, if not, the gist was that I do not support the Federal Reserve's foray into the non-investment grade bond universe. It opens up a whole can of…

The liquidity fiction When the Federal Reserve launched its bond buying programs during the Great Financial Crisis over a decade ago, it told the world that it was merely providing liquidity to markets that had needed it. It was acting as…