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Risks of Abenomics ‘stalling out’
"Most of the CPI effects of the Bank of Japan’s efforts to depreciate the yen remain confined to a relative price shock to food and energy that crowds out spending power elsewhere in the economy on future second-round effects in the absence…
Will consumer credit drive the next economic boom?
There are two potential issues with the current re-leveraging cycle. First, the increase in the latest report, outside of real estate related mortgages as shown in the chart below, was primarily driven by increases in student and auto loan…
On the importance of the Fed’s reverse repo facility for safe asset collateral
Expectations of future shortages in quality liquid bonds in US debt markets continue to persist. These shortages however are likely to be more acute for short-term paper. As a percentage of total government debt for example, treasury bills…
Four signs of economic slowdown in China
Given the difficulty in obtaining reliable data out of China, what other evidence do we have that the nation's economy is actually slowing? Here are four signs that seem to support the "slowdown" thesis.
Canada’s dreadful December retail sales report
Canada reported dreadful December retail sales and somewhat stronger than expected price pressures in January. The main take away is that a more dovish line from the central bank when it meets on March 5 is likely avoided.
Economic and market themes: 2014-02-21
Themes for today:
Real economy deterioration in Argentina, Brazil and Turkey is evident.
Ukraine may be isolated without contagion.
US data continues to surprise to the downside.
Eurozone data may surprise to the upside.
Sweden may…
ECB still ignoring the disinflationary trend
So far the ECB has not responded to the disinflationary risks building in the euro area. Some Governing Council members dismissed the calls for action from numerous economists, referring to the analysts' reports as the "Anglo-Saxon"…