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US commercial banks’ changing asset mix
Loan growth rate in the US, while better than in the Eurozone, remains on a downward path. The latest figures suggest that loans are increasing at less than 2%, while deposits continue to grow at 6-7% per year.
Venezuela: Taking it to the streets in Caracas
Conditions in Venezuela are reaching boiling point. Venezuelans - particularly students - are taking it to the streets, as protests sparked by worsening living conditions have turned violent (see story). Inadequate supplies of food and…
How Scottish self-determination matters
The events of the last week have made it very clear that Scottish independence would affect all of the UK. I have no vote in this referendum, but I definitely have an interest in its outcome.
The shrinking MBS market
The supply of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) continues to fall behind the potential demand - even with the Fed's taper in place. New issuance has steadily declined over the past year, with the Fed becoming an increasingly larger…
What do bank share prices tell us about growth?
Owning shares in a bank is the functional equivalent of owning a call option on the bank’s future operational earnings, and if the share price contains little intrinsic value (i.e. the value of its assets does not exceed the value of its…
Scotland and the banks
The UK government this week ruled out any question of agreeing to a currency union with an independent Scotland. So where does this leave Scotland's currency conundrum? And what about the banks? Scotland has two very large banks - RBS and…
Economic and market themes: 2014-02-14
Themes for today:
Commodities: soybean prices could fall due to increased supply. This would be troublesome for Argentina.
Emerging markets: Of the fragile five, India is looking better, Brazil is still a big concern.
Developed…