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Could Mario Draghi’s implementing QE help Matteo Renzi raise the Italian deficit?
The aim of the above header is to link two names in people’s minds, both of them Italian: Mario Draghi and Matteo Renzi. Naturally the idea is not original, the FT’s Peter Spiegel recently published an entire blog post (Does Renzi owe his…
Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Part 2
Yesterday, I began my Ten Surprises List. As a reminder, the surprise list is loosely based off Byron Wien’s list of ten surprises which he has conducting doing at Blackstone and Morgan Stanley for the last thirty years. Wien defines his…
No near-term currency regime change in China
Spot USD/CNY closed above the fix today for the first time since September 2012. Other factors are at work in China currently, making it even harder to read the true intentions of Chinese policymakers. All of these developments come against…
Auerback: US base growth is less than 2%
Marshall Auerback was on CNBC yesterday afternoon talking to Kelly Evans and Steve Liesman on Closing Bell. And his read on the US economy is like mine, 1.5-2.0% underlying growth. He thinks the weak Q1 numbers are not just weather-related.…
Edward Harrison’s Ten Surprises for 2014, Part 1
Brazil goes into a recession.
Spanish GDP growth rebounds and outstrips German GDP growth.
Gold rebounds to beyond $1600 an ounce.
US GDP growth in Q2 and Q3 is below 2%.
10-year US Treasury yields fall below 2.25%.
Abenomics ‘fails’…
China’s raw materials bubble bursts
Steel, iron ore futures in China tanked on bloated (all-time high) inventories and apparent lending curbs by Chinese banks.
The long decline of the Great British Pound
The value of the pound in 1945 was too high even for Britain as it was then, let alone now. It is time to put the past behind us, and move on.
Economic crisis in the post-Bretton Woods age
Here are some brief thoughts on the monetary system’s role in repeated economic crisis in the last 40 years.