Author

Edward Harrison 7783 posts 575 comments

Edward Harrison is a senior Editor at Bloomberg. He is also the founder of Credit Writedowns newsletter, a former career diplomat, investment banker and technology executive with over twenty five years of business experience. He speaks six languages and reads another five, skills he uses to provide a more global perspective. Edward holds an MBA in Finance from Columbia University and a BA in Economics from Dartmouth College.

Daily

Ever closer union and euroscepticism

Edward Harrison Sep 9, 2019

I haven't written about Brexit in months now, largely because it has become so unpredictable that I have had nothing to say. After we saw the delay that I predicted in December, the whole affair has just had too many moving parts to know…

Daily

The dollar liquidity squeeze and Germany’s weak real economy

Edward Harrison Sep 6, 2019

Real quick here on Europe as I promised yesterday to add some thoughts on Germany after my trip to Cologne US base rates are too high Take a look at this chart from Bianco Research. Jim Bianco describes this as showing the US having the…

Daily

Positive thoughts on my return from Germany and London

Edward Harrison Sep 5, 2019

I was in Cologne and London last week, two places I know quite well. And as I went out, my trip down memory lane was greeted by the eternal progress of human endeavour. Whether riding the frequently behind schedule Deutsche Bahn by the…

Daily

The end of global co-operation among liberal democracies

Edward Harrison Aug 28, 2019

I am back from my beach vacation. So, let me outline what my thinking is after a period of reflection and how it has changed or stayed the same. I last posted more than a week ago right before I left, regarding my frustration about…

Political Economy

Our over-reliance on monetary policy is the problem

Edward Harrison Aug 16, 2019

I am going to argue here that monetary policy is both less effective than fiscal policy, and that over-reliance on it unnecessarily politicizes monetary policy by putting unelected officials in too prominent an economic role. I would argue…

Monetary System

The Fed overtightened. Now it’s behind the curve. Recession awaits

Edward Harrison Aug 15, 2019

Sorry for the alarmist post title. But the Fed has completely bottled it. I've been warning for some time that it could go this way. And now, we are in in the endgame. First, the Fed overtightened through 2018. Then, forced at gunpoint by…

Daily

Why my base case for 2020 is recession

Edward Harrison Aug 13, 2019

Back at the end of July, I was talking about my macro thesis. And I led off writing this: The US is the laggard in this slowing but is affected as well. From a markets perspective, that means a convergence to zero, with yield curves…

Daily

Competitive currency devaluation and the currency war

Edward Harrison Aug 7, 2019

The US is the cleanest shirt Last week, I was talking to Megan Greene, the former chief economist at John Hancock for an interview on the US and European economies. And she said something that resonated with me about the global growth…

Daily

The trade-currency war will crystallize downside risks

Edward Harrison Aug 6, 2019

Yesterday, the overarching message of my post was this bit: "as we think of potential outcomes, policy error has to be a real concern here, especially in 2020 once the cumulative impact of all this takes its full measure." I don't think the…

Daily

Trade war escalation highlights downside economic risks

Edward Harrison Aug 5, 2019

The big story today is the potential for a currency war, emanating from the escalating trade war between the US and China. But there's a considerable degree of data flow that I want to parse to give a more complete macro view. Having…

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