2013

Links for 9 Aug 2013

By Sober Look Today we saw another confirmation that the UK's placement on the economic cycle curve (see post) in the "recovery acceleration" section is quite reasonable. The KPMG/REC employment report for the UK showed something we haven't…

News links for 8 Aug 2013

So the past year has been the year of earnings decline. Yet, the US stock market keeps powering to new highs. What's going on? It's called multiple expansion and it is the hallmark of all bull markets, cyclical or secular. The question is…

By Marc Chandler The Reserve Bank of Australia delivered the 25 bp rate cut that was widely expected earlier this week.  Today, the Bank of England provided a new framework for its forward guidance, linking monetary policy to unemployment…

Long-term interest rates are largely a reflection of expected future short-term future interest rates plus a term premium. So when you see yields move up, it reflects either an increase in term premiums from uncertainty or a change in the…

The serious debate has not been about whether or not China’s collapse is imminent. The disagreement was whether or not investment misallocation and the repression of household income growth were fundamental to the Chinese growth model. The…

By Sober Look The US Congress is nearing a compromise on the issue of student loan interest rates. Apparently loan rates will be changed from fixed to floating with an overall cap (see story). While rates are important, there is a much…

I spoke at a Euromoney conference on inflation-linked products last year. My thesis at the time that deflation is the real problem and that inflation isn't going to be a concern - which has largely proved right - was out of step with most…

Tech news links for 1 Aug 2013. These are my tech links from early today. I haven't seen anything from today's new yet and that means there's nothing in here from the Motorola X debut. That's going to be a very big story over the next few…