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Yearly Archives
2013
Five reasons why China will scrap the one-child policy
By Sober Look
Rumors have been circulating for some time in the media that China is considering scrapping the one-child policy that was launched back in 1979. But the nation's official paper suggested last week that although plans to…
Currencies: corrective pressures dominate on growth differentials
The main tension in the foreign exchange market is between positions adjusting pressures, which are US dollar negative, and widely held ideas that the trajectory of growth and interest rate differentials favor the US, which is dollar…
Household income in the U.S. remains well below pre-recession levels
By Sober Look
One of the key reasons for the mediocre economic growth in the US has been the ongoing weakness in household wages. As the chart below shows, US median inflation-adjusted household income (red line) remains well below…
The agency problem and how to create a criminogenic environment
The problem of not understanding fraud mechanisms is most intense among economists, who typically do not study fraud, do not understand fraud mechanisms, and have a tribal taboo against even writing or speaking the word “fraud.”
How to invest to avoid a Chinese slowdown
It's a numbers game, and it is… but it's also all about timing. We all know that China is slowing. But how quickly and how steeply will its economy fall? There is no one answer. China's transition will hit manufacturing and exports first.…
On the Moto X and Android domination
The new flagship phone for Motorola, Google's mobile hardware subsidiary, the Moto X has grabbed the tech industry's attention. It is made in the US and comes with a lot of flashy customization features. I think the phone is a bit…
The global cyclical recovery will continue
Three articles in this Wednesday and Thursday's Wall Street Journal highlighted that data point to a continued cyclical recovery despite a lot of doom and gloom from all sides. Let me post extracts from those articles I would like to…