2013

This is my tech links post that I am putting up outside the paywall and free for non-registered users. The only tech links in today's post are on the NSA.The impetus for this post was the revelation that the NSA can get access to data in…

News links for 21 Aug 2013

In many different emerging markets, the economy has unexpectedly weakened. We are seeing downturns everywhere from Mexico and Brazil in Latin America to Indonesia, India and Thailand in Asia. At this point there is no common thread on why…

If you look at the last two posts on this site from Marc Chandler and from Sober Look the connection between Fed tapering and money flows is clear. Hot money is flowing out of emerging markets and into Europe.

For those who don't watch these currencies on a daily basis, these sell-offs seem to happen in spurts - almost at random. But there is a pattern here, particularly in the past few months. Investors are dumping these currencies during…

The US dollar stands at the fulcrum. Investment flows are leaving emerging markets, with currencies from Brazil,India,Indonesia and Mexico being hit the hardest over the last few sessions. The MSCI Emerging Market Index is off 4.5% over the…

The same people who have been screaming inflation for the past few years are now saying that interest rates are finally about to explode. This is alarmist nonsense that disregards the influence policy rates have over the term structure of…

Given the ongoing volatility in fixed income markets, it's time to once again to take a look at performance. The chart below shows where we stand on a year-to-date basis for major asset classes from a USD investor's point of view.

The argument that China is forcefully urbanizing, and that this urbanization will guarantee growth rates above 7-8% for many more years, is almost sheer nonsense. Urbanization is a cost, and if China borrows to fund this cost, its debt will…

Recent developments in the Eurozone, specifically Cyprus where the first EU-dictated bail-in of bank depositors took place, brought to light an important issue which had been hiding in the shadows: the flawed nature of current deposit…