2013

Yet again, the U.S. debt ceiling is going to become a political football that could threaten the U.S. and global economy. While I don't think the U.S. will default on its debt these recurring manufactured crises make the U.S. extremely…

News links 27 Aug 2013 (Members only until the 11am newsletter goes out.)

News links for 26 Aug 2013

In a fashion similar to what became known as the "Asian Contagion" in the late 90s, the current stress in emerging economies has been spreading. One of the nations to experience financial stress recently has been Indonesia, Southeast Asia’s…

The gain in equity prices is now outpacing profits at a rate not see since the heady dot-com days. In fact, on a GAAP accounting basis, profits have been falling. I believe this creates a dangerous situation in view of rising interest rates…

News links for 23 Aug 2013

As major central bankers meet in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, Bloomberg, Bloomberg Surveillance was talking about who is going to replace Bernanke as the head of the Federal Reserve. I especially like the way that Sallie Krawcheck discusses the…

One often hears the refrain "the market is not the economy", but what does that really mean? I am going to explain it in my terms here in the context of the global reflation trade - EM meltdown paradox.

I am alarmed at how quickly economic and market volatility has spread throughout the emerging markets. However, I remain positive about the big picture global macro outlook because recent data show that Europe, the US and now China are…

Emerging markets currencies are getting hammered across the board today on the back of the FOMC minutes. Many are touching multi-year or even all-time lows. This provides further confirmation that the Fed's recent monetary stimulus effort…