interest rates

I mentioned earlier today that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell had a joint discussion with former Chair Janet Yellen and former Chairman Ben Bernanke at the American Economic Association and Allied Social Science Association 2019…

I am doing my 2019 outlook pieces now. And I plan on making some market outlook comments in the coming days. But, what's going on in the market right now is equally important. As the stock market takes a battering due to concerns about…

I want to talk a little about price action in asset markets this week. But, since I am on holiday, I am going to keep this short. Most of the focus has been on equities, where volatility has increased. But I am looking at this as more of a…

Bullish Treasury curve action Lost in the relief over the rally in US equities today was the price action in US government bonds. And it was good. Even before today, as the middle of the curve inverted, the Treasury curve had been…

Stocks sold off big again today. Slowly, we are inching ourselves toward a bear market here. And I think the mantra has to be 'Fight the Fed'. In this morning's market piece, I explained why this could be the Fed's last rate increase. And…

If you look at markets today, they are on full strike. The Fed may have reduced guidance. But that was clearly not enough to assuage market sentiment. Across a wide cross-section of markets, conditions have continued to tighten this morning…

As I wrote yesterday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates a quarter point but changed guidance in the face of tightening financial conditions. In his press conference afterwards, the Fed Chairman - also as predicted - talked bullishly…

The daily yesterday was on the resiliency of the US economy. My overarching message was that the angst we are seeing in the market is not reflective of near-term economic strength. Instead, it's a combination of worries about a slowing…

Asset market distress is mounting My default position recently has been more about volatility than a directional call on any specific asset class. But, in a world in which asset prices have been rising, increased volatility is almost always…

There is a lot of economic and political uncertainty swirling around the global economy right now. And, judging by many of the headlines, you would think we're on the verge of recession. I don't believe that's the case. Instead, I believe…