interest rates

Happy Tuesday! For me, it's actually like a Monday because I took a 5-day holiday over Easter and am coming back to work today with relatively fresh eyes. So, let me make this a longer post, telling you what I am thinking and why I am…

For several weeks now, as the new virulent coronavirus strains have begun to circulate, I have called 2021 a foot race between those strains and the vaccination process. And I am thinking of the new strains circulating around the globe as…

Two separate issues here today. The first is on the yield curve in the US. And the second is on the slow vaccine rollout in the EU and its impact on the economy. The three yield curve outcomes Let' start with the yield curve. We began the…

I had some bullish economic thoughts last week. But I also embedded a warning about support for bonds being broken. Yields at the long end of the US Treasury curve are rising, potentially to the top of a range between 1.00% and 1.50% and…

Very quick here The initial jobless claims number released this morning of 712,000 was well below expectations for 775,000. And it was also well below last week's upwardly revised figure of 787,000. That's very good news. But it is just…

I had two related tweetstorms this morning whose logic I want to flesh out a bit with you. They relate to the existing macro policy world we live in and how that affects outcomes. The long and short is that the outcomes are sub-optimal and…

My view for the last several weeks is that September and October is where the rubber hits the road for the US economy. By that time, the second spike in coronavirus cases will have diminished and we will get a more realistic forward-looking…

The news flow is eliciting five themes for me right now. And I will dive into them briefly below. They are gold, the US dollar and rates, Europe, Covid-19 in the US and US fiscal stimulus. I am not going to take a hard view here. I simply…

Setup We are set for yet another down day in equity markets, with S&P and Nasdaq futures showing 3% losses as I write this. The real moves are in the bond market though because we've seen 20 basis point moves at the long-end of the…

*I started this post about 8:30 EST. So, hindsight tells me the part on market tone is on the money, as the market is selling off a bit. Market tone So, I was right yesterday morning about the potential for a relief rally. It was a pretty…